The Supply Crisis
The National Housing Accord’s target of 1.2 million new homes by mid-2029 is already lagging significantly behind schedule.
Critical Insight
Housing scarcity is now "baked into the system" for 2026. This shortage is driving a projected 7.7% rise in national house prices.
Drivers of the shortfall:
- Severe labour shortages in construction.
- Elevated material costs & planning delays.
Target vs. Reality (2029 Projection)
The 30% shortfall in the National Housing Accord target.
Source: National Housing Accord Analysis
The "Two-Speed" Market Outlook
While Sydney faces affordability ceilings, regional capitals are primed for explosive growth. Brokers must identify "Best Buys" early.
Brisbane & Perth
Tipped for 30% growth by 2030.
Why? High Olympic infrastructure spend (Brisbane) and resource sector strength (Perth) create a compelling compounding effect.
Sydney Pressure
Projected median: $2.22 Million.
First-home buyers are being pushed out, necessitating the Rentvesting pivot.
Rental Crisis Context
1.1% Vacancy Rate
"Cashflow is King"
Projected Dwelling Values (2026-2031)
Comparing median entry points and 5-year growth potential.
The Strategic Pivot: Rentvesting
Don't wait to buy. Buy to grow.
Execution > Loan Growth
2026 Mandate
1. Rent Lifestyle
Live where you want (e.g., Sydney, Inner Melbourne) but cannot afford to buy.
Cost: Rent < Mortgage Interest on $2.2M
2. Invest for Growth
Purchase in high-growth, affordable markets (Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide).
Benefit: 30% Compounding Growth (5-10 Yrs)
Broker Execution Plan
Identify "Best Buys"
Focus on compounding over 5-10 years. Look for infrastructure spends (Olympics) and resource strength.
Cashflow is King
Target high-yield units. With vacancy rates at 1.1%, yields are supporting valuations despite interest rates.
Educate on "Wait Costs"
Show clients the cost of waiting. In a 7.7% growth market, waiting 12 months erodes deposit power.
Future-Proof Your Business
The shortfall implications mean "Execution" is the primary challenge. Brokers who pivot to strategic Rentvesting advice will build stronger, long-term client portfolios.